The Battle for Maine

For nearly three decades, Republican Senator Susan Collins has fended off every Democratic challenger in Maine, a state that has voted blue in every presidential election since 1992. In 2026, she must reckon with her party’s historically unpopular President as she faces Democratic nominee Troy Jackson in her bid for a sixth Senate term.

Troy Jackson faces an uphill battle. As a last-minute replacement candidate for Graham Platner, who dropped out in July after facing credible sexual assault allegations from a former romantic partner, Jackson has had only a few months to build a Senate campaign against a well-established opponent. Although he has a long electoral history in Maine, first running for the Maine House of Representatives in 1998, Jackson has faltered in statewide elections, recently coming third in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.

While Jackson won resoundingly in his bid to replace Platner as the Democratic Senate nominee, his victory was more a signal of Democrats’ ideological inclinations than Jackson’s political prowess. As Philip Elliott of Time Magazine put it, “Jackson shares Platner’s progressive ideology but none of his charisma. When Jackson and Platner appeared together during their primaries, it was clear who was the headliner.” Consequently, Jackson’s campaign rhetoric has not yet stuck. Despite framing himself as a champion of the working class, Jackson loses to Collins with non-college-educated voters. Mainers also lack real enthusiasm for his campaign: in a September CNN / SSRS poll, 71% of Troy Jackson’s supporters stated they were voting against Collins rather than in favor of Jackson.

Despite these potential concerns, Troy Jackson has performed well throughout the campaign cycle: both my own polling aggregate and 270toWin’s poll-average calculation show Jackson currently leading Collins by at least a 2-point margin. Jackson polls exceptionally well with voters under 45 and has narrowed his deficit with voters over 65, a powerful voting bloc that could propel Jackson to victory. Jackson also performs strongly with college-educated voters, who tend to vote more frequently than people without college degrees.

Recent polling trends help to explain Jackson’s success. A recent poll from Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research found that 55% of respondents were concerned that Collins voted too often with Trump, a significant danger to her electoral chances given her dependence on moderate Democratic voters to win elections. A recent ProPublica exposé has also embroiled Collins in a bribery scandal, which may further reduce her support in recent polls.

But Collins has faced unpopularity in polls before. In 2020, Susan Collins won by 9 points despite 270toWin’s poll average showing her opponent, Democratic nominee Sara Gideon, leading by four.

Current evidence makes it hard to predict who will be crowned Senator in November. But President Donald Trump’s unpopularity may have finally caught up with Collins, whose occasional protest votes against her party have done little to appease Independents and moderate Democrats. Should Jackson come out in front, the race will have real ramifications for the Democratic Party: he has stated he wouldn’t support current Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer for party leadership and would strengthen the progressive wing’s influence over the Senate.

And if Susan Collins wins a sixth term, it will be business as usual in Maine.

This article was written as a summary of key findings from Leo’s poll tracker. For a more detailed analysis of recent polling and previous election cycles, click here.