The Progressive and the Moderate

In March of 2026, the New York Times published a political analysis from its chief political analyst, Nate Cohn, with the title: “Crockett vs. Talarico. Progressive vs. Moderate. Right?” In the article, which analyzed the campaigns of the two frontrunners in the Democratic Primary at the time, Cohn paints Crockett as the candidate who initially appears as progressive, whereas Talarico appears as the moderate, ultimately concluding that the two candidates hold broadly similar policy positions and are divided much more by style, coalition, electability perceptions, and political branding than by substantive ideology.

Certainly, being the most progressive does not feel like a particularly winning strategy in a state like Texas, where Democrats have not won a Senate election since 1988. A win for Talarico, who has since defeated Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary election, can only come from a successful appeal to independents and conservatives who were swayed by Trump in 2024. These efforts have clearly begun: after John Cornyn’s loss in the Republican Primary runoff, Talarico tweeted that Cornyn’s supporters “have a place in [his] campaign,” arguing that they shared a belief in “public service” and implying that Paxton did not. Nevertheless, in the Democratic primary, progressive credentials still matter, with polling from Democratic consulting firm Chism Strategies finding that “53% [of Democratic primary voters] would describe themselves as progressive.”

In that regard, YouGov polling found that Crockett performed best amongst “likely Democratic primary voters who say they are either conservative or very conservative,” while far underperforming Talarico amongst more liberal groups. As Cohn noted in his New York Times piece, this polling may be slightly misleading: much of Crockett’s advantage amongst more moderate groups may come from her significant advantage with Black Democratic Primary voters, who are “likelier to identify as moderate or conservative than white Democrats.” The primary election demonstrates how media narratives of ideological positioning can diverge from perceptions within a political movement itself: while many journalists either portrayed Jasmine Crockett as the race’s natural progressive standard-bearer or considered both candidates similarly progressive, further-left voters and organizations overwhelmingly gravitated toward James Talarico, suggesting that contemporary progressivism is increasingly defined by anti-establishment credibility and economic populism rather than traditional ideological labels alone.

The Media Perspective

The media narrative on Crockett remained largely consistent throughout the primary. Politico reporters quoted Tarrant County Democratic Party chairwoman Allison Campolo, who characterized Crockett as a “loud, bold progressive.” Washington Post opinion columnist Ramesh Ponnuru labeled Crockett as a progressive while emphasizing her “lack of interest in winning over Texans who have previously supported President Donald Trump.”

The narrative around Talarico, however, was slightly more muddled. The same Politico article that framed Crockett as progressive instead described Talarico as a “rising star within the Democratic party” who “achieved fame for his liberal view of Christianity and involvement in a walkout staged by Texas state lawmakers over Republicans gerrymandering a congressional map at Trump’s request,” not explicitly calling him a progressive. Ponnuru and Cohn, meanwhile, labeled Talarico a progressive.

For the most part, however, this two-progressive-race narrative appeared more consistent throughout, with the media largely focusing on their different approaches — Crockett seemed more focused on coalescing against Republicans, whereas Talarico embraced unity and sought to bring Republicans into his coalition — rather than on the two candidates’ political views.

The Choice for Progressives

Despite the media accepting Crockett as a progressive, progressive voices outside of the establishment seem to disagree. Certainly, the two candidates both had strong progressive credentials: Crockett supported Medicare for all and is a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, and Talarico has positioned himself as a supporter of the working-class who is willing to take on the corporations and billionaires who he calls the real “welfare queens.” However, progressives do not see these two candidates equally: further-left political commentators, such as Hasan Piker and Sam Seder, labeled Talarico as the more anti-establishment candidate while raising concerns over Crockett’s voting record on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, among other issues. The Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC), which has endorsed politicians like Jamie Raskin and Elizabeth Warren, gave its endorsement to Talarico over Crockett, with PCCC co-founder Adam Green calling him “an authentic messenger for his bold economic vision and fighting corporate power.” Jacobin, a socialist-leaning magazine, described Talarico as a champion of the working class and considered his victory the “best outcome [for the Left] when it comes to the choice between him and Crockett.”

Talarico’s record is imperfect as a progressive: as a State Representative, he received donations from a group backed by Miriam Adelson, which his spokesperson defended by simply arguing that he had “pushed for campaign finance reform.” However, he was nonetheless accepted by the left as the more progressive candidate, with commentators labeling his success as a victory against the Democratic establishment — essentially labeling Crockett as a part of this establishment. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Crockett received an endorsement from Kamala Harris, a more moderate Democrat whose endorsement may have fueled this perception of Crockett as a part of the establishment. Nate Cohn, to his credit, acknowledged this reality, stating that “her voting record in Congress, as estimated by metrics like the DW-Nominate system, puts her in the mainstream of the Democratic Party — more aligned with the party’s congressional leadership than with the Squad, the group of progressive Democratic congresswomen.”

However, his analysis may have underestimated just how “mainstream” Crockett has appeared to progressives. Talarico crushed Crockett in counties where Bernie Sanders won in the 2020 primary, and YouGov polling found that Talarico led with a convincing 20-point margin amongst voters who identified as “liberal” or “very liberal.” Although Crockett did maintain a base of support amongst progressives, a clear majority of progressives ultimately favored Talarico, a striking gap between the way the race was framed by much of the political media and the way many progressive voters understood the candidates themselves.

The Implications

In retrospect, while the media did recognize Talarico’s progressive credentials, it also overestimated Crockett’s, failing to capture the perception of the race as a contest between an anti-establishment progressive and a candidate they increasingly viewed as part of the Democratic mainstream. At least among the party’s left flank, that distinction was neither subtle nor particularly controversial, serving as a lesson on how progressives — at least in states similar to Texas — choose their candidates. Rather than voting for rhetorical opposition to conservatives or membership in progressive caucuses, progressives gravitated toward a candidate they viewed as a more authentic champion of working-class interests and a credible challenger to the Democratic establishment itself, even if he did not openly frame himself in that manner.

Unfortunately for Talarico, widespread support amongst progressives will do little to help as he goes up against Ken Paxton in the general election, with progressives making up a small percentage of the Texas electorate. For Talarico to win, he will need to retain the coalition that propelled him through the primary while expanding it well beyond the party’s base. Whether his economic populist messaging and unique view on Christian teachings can resonate beyond the Democratic electorate remains to be seen.